אינטליגנציה והצלחה סוציואקונומית: סקירה מטא-אנליטית של מחקרי אורך

Strenze, T. (2006). Intelligence and socioeconomic success: A meta-analytic review of longitudinal research. Intelligence 35, 5, 401-426

עיקרי הדברים

  • ההשפעה של ממוצע הציונים בבית הספר על רמת השכר העתידית זניחה
  • ההשפעה של מנת המשכל על רמת השכר העתידית נמוכה, אך קיימת
  • למנת המשכל יש כוח מנבא גדול יותר על הצלחה בקריירה, רמת החינוך ורמת השכר מאשר לרמה הסוציואקונומית של ההורים ולממוצע הציונים בבית הספר

מחקרים שנערכו לאורך עשורים מראים כי אנשים שהשיגו תוצאות גבוהות יותר במבחני מנת משכל מגיעים לרמה גבוהה יותר של חינוך, אוחזים במשרות יוקרתיות יותר ומרוויחים יותר – בממוצע – מאנשים אחרים (Gottfredson, 1997, 2003; Jensen, 1980, 1998; Schmidt & Hunter, 2004).

עם זאת, ישנן שאלות חשובות שעדיין לא נענו בצורה מספקת:

  1. מהי מידת המתאם בין אינטליגנציה והצלחה? האם היא גדולה דיה כדי שתהא בעלת חשיבות מעשית?
  2. לאיזה משתנה יש כוח ניבוי גדול יותר להצלחה: אינטליגנציה, ממוצע ציונים בבית הספר או מעמד סוציו-אקונומי של ההורים?
  3. האם התרחשו לאורך השנים שינויים בקשר בין אינטליגנציה להצלחה?
  4. האם יש שינויים במידת הניבוי להצלחה של מבחני אינטליגנציה שנערכו בגיל צעיר לבין מידת הניבוי להצלחה של מבחנים כאלה שנערכו בגיל מבוגר יותר?

 

למחקר המלא

לקריאה נוספת

 

רקע וסקירת ספרות

שלושה סוגים של הצלחה: במחקר זה נמדדים שלושה סוגים של הצלחה:

  1. רמת החינוך – מספר שנות לימוד ותארים אקדמיים.
  2. יוקרת המשרה – נקבעת כאן על פי דירוגים סוציולוגיים מוסכמים כמו Duncan Socioeconomic Index ו-NORC prestige scale (Ganzeboom & Treiman 1996a).
  3. רמת השכר או ההכנסה המוניטרית הכוללת של היחיד (ולא של משק ביתו).

מתאם גבוה, מתאם נמוך: מחקר זה מתבסס על הדירוג שערך כהן (Cohen 1988) לפיו מתאם של עד 0.3 נחשב נמוך, מתאם של 0.3 עד 0.5 נחשב בינוני ואילו מתאם של מעל 0.5 נחשב גבוה (כזכור, 1 מציין מתאם מלא, ו-0 מציין היעדר מתאם).

המצב הסוציואקונומי של ההורים: במחקר זה מוגדר המצב הסוציואקונומי של ההורים כשילוב בין השכלת האב, השכלת האם, מקצוע האב והכנסת ההורים בשנות ילדותו ונעוריו של הנבדק.

אינטליגנציה לעומת המצב הסוציואקונומי של ההורים: מידת הניבוי של אינטליגנציה להצלחה בהשוואה למידת הניבוי של המעמד הסוציואקונומי להצלחה היא שאלה על החברה בה אנו חיים: האם זו חברה מריטוקרטית המתגמלת אנשים על כישרון או שמא יש חשיבות גדולה יותר דווקא לרקע חברתי? (Saunders 1997; Turner 1960).

אינטליגנציה לעומת ממוצע הציונים בבית הספר: גם זו שאלה לגבי מה באמת חשוב להצלחה בקריירה: האם זו יכולתו הכללית של האדם (כפי שהיא נמדדת במבחני IQ) או שמא הדברים שהאדם למד בבית הספר והמוטיבציה שלו ללמוד (כפי שהם נמדדים בציונים בבית הספר)?

גיל בזמן המבחן: אם אינטליגנציה מנבאת הצלחה בלי קשר לגיל שבו היא נמדדת, הרי שיש סיבה להאמין שההבדלים במידת ההצלחה בקריירות של אנשים שונים הם תוצאה של הבדלים יציבים ברמת האינטליגנציה שנמדדת במבחני IQ (Jencks and Phillips 1999). מצד שני, אם הכוח הנבואי של מבחני מנת משכל משתנה עם הגיל, אזי ניתן לחשוב על פרשנויות מנוגדות התלויות בשאלה האם התוצאות במבחנים אלה מושפעות מגנים או מהסביבה.

גיל בזמן מדידת ההצלחה: לפי היפותזה אחת, המתאם בין אינטליגנציה להצלחה אמור לגדול ככל שהאנשים מתבגרים משום שהאנשים מתקרבים לעמדות שתואמות את יכולותיהם ככל שהם מתקדמים במסלולי הקריירה שלהם. הבדלים אינטלקטואליים מצטברים לאורך מסלול החיים וחשיבותם עולה (Gottfredson 2003).

חוקרים אחרים סברו כי ההפך הוא הנכון: התוקף הנבואי של מבחני מנת משכל אמור לרדת ככל שהזמן חולף משום שאנשים מוכשרים פחות נהנו מזמן רב יותר כדי לרכוש מיומנויות המפצות על החוסר ההתחלתי שלהם ביכולת (Keil & Cortina, 200 ).

ניתן לפשר בין עמדות מנוגדות אלה באמצעות האמירה כי הרעיון של ירידת חשיבות מנת המשכל לאורך השנים תקף לביצוען של משימות ספציפיות שנהפכות לאוטומטיות לאחר תרגול מסוים ואילו הרעיון של העלייה בחשיבות מנת המשכל תקף לפעילויות מורכבות שנמשכות על פני זמן רב, כמו השגה ושימור של סטטוס חברתי, שהם תמיד תובעניים מבחינה קוגניטיבית.

תחומה הגיאוגרפי של המטא-אנליזה: מטא אנליזה זאת בוצעה רק על מחקרים שנערכו במדינות מערביות: ארצות הברית, קנדה, אירופה, אוסטרליה וניו זילנד.

מחקרים שלא נכללו במטא-אנליזה: כדי להימנע מהטיות, לא נכללו מחקרים שדגמו רק תלמידי קולג', רק מועסקים בארגון מסוים אחד או רק עובדים במקצוע מסוים אחד. כמו כן, לא נכללו מחקרים רוחביים, אלא רק מחקרי אורך, משום שרק הם מאפשרים להסיק מסקנות על ההשפעה הסיבתית האפשרית של אינטליגנציה על הצלחה.

חישובים מטא-אנליטיים: השונות בין גודל המדגמים במחקרים השונים שנסקרו היתה גבוהה מאוד (בין 60 ל-339,951). כדי שהמחקרים מרובי-המשתתפים לא יקבלו משקל רב מדי, כל המחקרים שדגמו מעל 7,000 נבדקים (כ-5% מכלל המחקרים שנכללו במטא-אנליזה זו) קיבלו משקל כאילו שדגמו 7,000 נבדקים בלבד.

 

ממצאים בולטים

לגבי כל שלושת המנבאים (אינטליגנציה, ממוצע ציונים, מצב סוציואקונומי) – המתאם עם רמת החינוך הוא הגבוה ביותר והמתאם עם רמת ההכנסה הוא החלש ביותר.

המתאמים בין אינטליגנציה לרמת חינוך, יוקרת מקצוע ורמת שכר בגיל הבגרות:

מבין שלושת המנבאים, האינטליגנציה נמצאה כבעלת כוח הניבוי החזק ביותר.

המתאם המתוקן והמשוקלל (p) בין אינטליגנציה לרמת החינוך הוא 0.56 (מעט גבוה).

מתאם זה בין אינטליגנציה ליוקרת המקצוע הוא 0.45 (בינוני).

מתאם זה בין אינטליגנציה לרמת השכר הוא 0.23 (נמוך). ממצא זה עומד בטווח של המתאמים שנמצאו באנליזות קודמות: 0.15 (Bowels et al. 2001) ו-0.27 (Ng et al. 2005).

המתאמים בין ממוצע ציונים בבית הספר לרמת חינוך, יוקרת מקצוע ורמת השכר בבגרות:

המתאם המתוקן והמשוקלל (p) בין ממוצע ציונים בבית הספר לרמת החינוך הוא 0.53 (מעט גבוה).

מתאם זה בין ממוצע ציונים ליוקרת המקצוע הוא הוא 0.37 (בינוני).

מתאם זה בין ממוצע ציונים לרמת השכר הוא 0.09 (זניח).

המתאמים בין רמה סוציואקונומית של הורים לרמת חינוך, יוקרת מקצוע ורמת השכר בבגרות:

המתאם המתוקן והמשוקלל (p) בין רמה סוציואקונומית לרמת החינוך הוא 0.55 (מעט גבוה).

מתאם זה בין רמה סוציואקונומית ליוקרת המקצוע הוא 0.38 (בינוני).

מתאם זה בין רמה סוציואקונומית לרמת השכר הוא 0.18 (נמוך).

כוחם המנבא של מבחני אינטליגנציה בהתאם לגיל הנבדקים:

כוחם המנבא של המבחנים לגבי רמת החינוך ויוקרת המקצוע עולה עם גיל הנבדקים.

כוחם המנבא של המבחנים לגבי רמת השכר אינו משתנה עם גיל הנבדקים.

כוחם המנבא של מבחני האינטליגנציה בהתאם לשנה בה הם נערכו:

לא נמצאו שינויים משמעותיים במידת הניבוי של מבחני מנת משכל את רמת החינוך ויוקרת המקצוע בהתאם לשנה שבה הם נערכו.

לגבי רמת השכר נמצאו אמנם שינויים כאלה, אך מדובר בשינויים תנודתיים ולא ניתן להצביע על מגמה של ירידה או של עלייה ברמת הניבוי לאורך השנים.

המתאם בין המנבאים לבין מידת ההצלחה כפונקציה של גיל

המתאם בין המנבאים לרמת שכר ומקצוע עולה עם הגיל, בהתאם להיפותזה שקובעת כי עם חלוף הזמן, אנשים מתקרבים יותר ויותר למשכורות ולמקצועות המתאימים להם ומשקפים את יכולותיהם.

בניגוד לכך, המתאם בין המנבאים לרמת החינוך דווקא ירד מעט עם הגיל, כנראה משום שקל יותר לטפס במעלה הסולם החינוכי (ברגע שרכשת רמה חינוכית מסוימת, לעולם לא תוכל להפסידה שוב, בניגוד לרמת השכר או סוג המקצוע שעליהם יש להיאבק כל הזמן).

 

דיון

יש חשיבות לממצאים אלה משום שהם מפריכים טענה הנשמעת פעמים רבות מפי מבקרי "תנועת המבחנים", לפיה הקשר החיובי בין אינטליגנציה להצלחה הוא אך ורק אפקט של מצבם הסוציואקונומי של ההורים או של ההישגים הלימודיים המשפיעים על שני המשתנים (Fischer et al. 1996).

אילו המתאם בין מנת משכל להצלחה הוא רק תופעת לוואי של ההשפעה הסיבתית של המצב הסוציואקונומי או של ההישגים הלימודיים, הרי שלמשתנים אלה היה אמור להיות כוח ניבויי גדול יותר מאשר לאינטליגנציה – ואולם מטא-אנליזה זו מצאה כי ההפך הוא הנכון.

ממצאים אלה קובעים לפיכך כי מנת משכל היא כוח סיבתי עצמאי מבין הכוחות שקובעים הצלחה. במלים אחרות, העובדה כי אנשים אינטליגנטים מצליחים יותר מאחרים אינה מוסברת במלואה באמצעות העובדה כי אנשים אלה נוטים לבוא ממשפחות אמידות ולהצליח יותר מאחרים בבית הספר.

 

מגבלות אפשריות של המחקר

המחקר אינו כולל את כל הנתונים האפשריים, מסיבות של היעדר נגישות או ידע על קיומם.

המחקר הנוכחי כלל רק שלושה מדדים של רקע חברתי ולא מדדים אחרים כמו מקום מגורים, מספר אחאים או גירושי הורים.

במחקר הנוכחי לא שוקללה רמתם השונה של בתי הספר כאשר נבחן ממוצע הציונים.

השאלה בדבר השפעה גנטית לעומת השפעה סביבתית על מנת משכל לא נדונה ישירות במחקר.

 

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